Making Migration Benefit Home Countries

With a rapidly ageing Europe and the deteriorating state of affairs in Africa, I believe mass migration to Europe is set to increase. Properly approached, this could be something countries like Nigeria as a nation could benefit from.

I am a migrant. I have lived outside Nigeria for more than a quarter of my life. And from the current outlook, my situation will likely remain this way for a long time. This story is true for my siblings and for a growing number of Nigerians who have decided to make the West their new home. This trend isn’t new. There are more push and pull factors to emigrating than remaining at home. And it is unlikely this trend will change soon. For some, it is because the skills acquired,especially by the brightest and most articulate of minds in for example in Nigeria, align with Western standards. As a result, what they know (whatever education or experience they have garnered) isn’t really relevant at home — a nation still grappling with addressing some of its basic needs like electricity and portable water. For others, especially the most vulnerable in the society, the country has failed to provide the basic requirements nor the required state support.

This trend is consistent across most of the developing world, especially Africa. By 2017, on average the continent’s emigration rate stood at 2 out of every 1,000 people. And this continues even as the population remains young and vibrant. The United Nations predicted that the median age (which was 19.7 years in 2012) will increase to 25.4 years in 2050. In 2012, the continent,which made up 13% of the world’s population and had approximately 85% of its population below age 45, will make up 24% of the world’s population in 2050: that means approximately 2.4 billion people would be African. Most of them would be people from countries already experiencing a dearth of required skills to build their ecosystem,and thus will be in constant search for greener pastures.

Things will be rather different in Europe. The continent will require a more diverse workforce to meet the increasingly complex nature of the tasks ahead; and this is already becoming evident. The recently concluded 2018 Football World Cup was tagged a win for diversity, as 16 of the 23 players that represented France originate from families that only recently immigrated to France. Even as the roles ahead become increasingly complicated, the skilled labour force is shrinking. H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution think tank, predicted the median age in Europe will increase from 37.7 years in 2003 to 52.3 years by 2050.

On a lighter note, should this team be called “The Blues” or “The Blacks”?

This dichotomy implies that the scarce resource of the future might not be fossil fuel or data. It might be skilled human labour. It is easy to suggest that Artificial Intelligence and machines might quench that. But there are reasons to seriously doubt the impact of A.I on a shrinking labour force. Taken to the extreme, in the TV series “Electric Dream’’ (by acclaimed fiction writer Phillip Dick), there was an episode titled “Autofac”, that explored the dilemma machines might face if humans go extinct. It paints a possible reality on how essential humans can be for advanced machines who will evolve to desire intangibles like we desire: intangibles like having a purpose. The best of what we know suggests that people are important, and lots of them for the following reasons:

• We must always have a population that will raise children, if only to oil the child rearing and entertainment sector of the economy, which (using my household budget as a rough guide)could account for up to a quarter of the economy. And that is besides the sentimental value having children brings;
• There is the pension crisis coming up, resulting from the dearth of younger working population available to contribute into the pension fund that should meet the need of an ageing population living longer. Meeting the demands of an ageing population with be impossible robots and machines get taxed or the retirement age gets reviewed upwards;
• Even if machines are able to overcome the challenges the above pose, who will buy their produce? Machines are products of economic frameworks to incentivise agent to make and maintain them and political frameworks (governing what is ethical to do). We are yet to suggest a framework where machines can exist outside human control without imploding.

And these fail to include the intangible relevance of having younger people to the mental well-being of the aged population. We are wired to live communally with other humans capable of sharing human experiences and emotions with us and these are things machines cannot replace. In other words, people in the developing continents will be the planet’s most valuable resource in the next 30 years.

Our ability to capture value is limited by our ability to know what is of value…I see an opportunity for the developing world in this situation, case in point, my home country, Nigeria. As Nigeria’s best are emigrating in droves, under the pretext of education and a myriad of other reasons ( and by this, therefore becoming a large supplier of expats around the world) why not formalise the relationship? The best businesses are made when people formalise something that already exist. It is easy to question the ethics behind this, and maybe re-label it as a form of new-age slavery. But I don’t think that is the proper way to look at the situation. Many of our migrants “escape” Nigeria to become refugees and even live under conditions that question the humanity behind it. Creating a transparent and audit-able process might just be what is required to protect our citizens…and maybe make money and develop some capabilities.

Immigration is complicated. The underlying basis for successful immigration is the assurance that the expat working in the host country will produce value over the alternative of just home candidates. Value could be in terms of cheaper labour cost, reduced pressure on the welfare state, and most importantly local knowledge of a foreign market, along with a different worldview. Capturing what will provide assurance to the host country is a big business, especially with the rise in mass-immigration. And this is where the gate keepers come in…foreign ministries and embassies.

Beyond sentimental reasons (and, sadly, the need to renew my passport every 5 years), I always struggle to see the importance of the Nigerian embassy/consulate in the countries I have resided. Their interest lies more in the administrative/diplomatic duties over support for the citizens of the countries they serve. During the time oil was the mainstay of the economy, this approach might have been effective. But in unique times like these, I think the country should explore a more dynamic approach to immigration. Our government services abroad should work to make it appealing to be a Nigerian living abroad.

The Ministry of Foreign Affair/embassies should evolve. Beyond dealing with administrative duties, these agencies should seek to package the talents of Nigerians as a commodity that can be used to deal with some of the pressing employment issues in host countries: that is, to become pretty much to becoming “Nigeria’s Human Capital Promotion Manager”. Their roles will centre around collating the available skill base of Nigeria, identifying potential employment gaps in foreign nations that its citizens can meet, and enabling seamless transactions between Nigerians abroad and the people/opportunities at home. Addressing this gap will not only enable capitalisation of our human resource on a national level, but might also drive the development of our indigenous capabilities. I have listed below some of the possibilities of my recommendation.

The role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

In addition to some of what this Ministry currently does, it could begin to play a pivotal role in our emigration strategy. In a broad sense it could help in formulating the national annual emigration target and impact evaluation.

• In collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should know (in absolute terms) the number of able-working people in and out of the country and exactly what they do. When I say what they do, I mean how many orthodontist (for example) we have, both in the country and abroad, and where they are;
• The ministry should be informed of any Nigerian who receives a resident visa (like a student or working visa),and their contact addresses,and thus update its database on distribution of skilled (and potentially skilled) Nigerians living abroad;
• The ministry could work with local universities to provide accredited training of Nigerians (at home)towards preparing them for high in-demand roles;
• The ministry should collate and report on investment opportunities in Nigeria. They should also work with local agencies to create seamless ways for investors to access and monitor said investments in Nigeria;
• It should collate projects across the nation that require expertise not available in the country and deploy to our foreign embassies/consulates (for regional search of indigenous capabilities who reside abroad).

Embassies/Consulate

Embassies and consulates should play roles beyond being a representative of Nigeria to the host country, but also to their citizens residing there. They should play a more strategic role in assisting Nigerians connect with their home country, and with other countries in the world.

• Collate database of Nigerians in host countries and their different professions;
• Promote Nigeria’s labour force and work ethics to the host country. This could help create opportunities for Nigerians both in the host country, other foreign countries, and also in Nigeria;
• Connect Nigerians with investment opportunities back in Nigeria(this could become a more conscious source of Foreign Direct Investment);
• Connect Nigerians with other Nigerians in the host countries (to help build communities and a sense of belonging);
• Assist the host countries in providing adequate background checks on Nigerians abroad and also bringing offending Nigerians to justice;
• Connect skilled Nigerians with opportunities, projects, and internships in Nigeria.

These suggestions may look unattainable, given the current state of things in Nigeria, but I don’t think they are impossible. It will require us changing our focus from whatever it is meant to be right now to becoming a country that exports skills. A good start will be a reduction and reform of our educational institutions.

Some might argue that racism and prejudice might prevent this idea from having any traction, especially my recommendation to promote work the ethics and values Nigerians. But I beg to differ. No one would have imagined that people who look like the Senegalese Raoul Diagne (the First black footballer in the French National Team) will become the dominant players there in less than 90 years. Nothing beats prejudice like results(and dire need!).